From Registration to Representation: Latino Turnout as Path to Power
Drafted by Sharon Rayburn and Juan Pozo, Policy and Legislation Fellows Edited by Dr. Ray Serrano, Director of Research and Policy
As we move from registration deadlines to early voting, Latino voter turnout holds incredible weight in shaping the 2024 election. In examining Latino voter mobilization, we see a clear trajectory toward greater influence, as underscored by patterns from the 2020 Presidential and 2022 midterm elections. With Latinos emerging as a powerful force in the electorate, their engagement could prove to be the critical factor for any candidate aiming for victory. As their influence continues to grow, it becomes clear that successful candidates must prioritize outreach and mobilization efforts within this demographic to harness their potential impact on election outcomes.
The high voter turnout in the 2020 election set a powerful standard for 2024—a benchmark we should not only aim to match but surpass. Fueled by pandemic-driven changes like expanded mail-in voting, extended early voting, and more accessible ballot drop boxes, 2020 saw the highest turnout in over three decades. This experience clearly illustrates that when we remove barriers and motivate citizens, Latinos will respond by voting in historic numbers. As we look ahead to 2024, matching or surpassing that turnout is essential, especially considering Biden’s 59% share of the Latino vote in 2020. Latino turnout is now more vital than ever for any candidate hoping to secure victory, emphasizing the urgent need for effective engagement and mobilization within this influential demographic.
In the 2020 election, nearly 66% of the voting-eligible population turned out, while 49% participated in the 2018 midterm elections—both representing the highest turnout rates among Latinos for presidential and midterm elections since the early 20th century. However, turnout dipped to 46% in the 2022 midterms. While the decrease from 2018 to 2022 may seem minor, it raises concerns, particularly because the reasons for this decline remain unclear. There's apprehension about whether a similar trend could emerge in the 2024 presidential election.
Factors contributing to this decline in voter turnout might include shifting political priorities, growing political distrust, or a general sense of apathy among the electorate. Moreover, following the unfounded claims of widespread election fraud after the 2020 presidential election, we witnessed the introduction of stricter voter ID requirements and targeted actions against community members for alleged ballot trafficking. It's plausible that these voter intimidation efforts played a role in the 3% decrease in turnout from 2018 to 2022. As these intimidation efforts and voter ID barriers have intensified, it's more important than ever to mobilize voters and ensure that voices are heard at the polls. The stakes have never been higher, and engaging with the electorate is imperative for a robust democracy.
We gathered and analyzed data from these two elections, focusing on eligible, registered, and actual voters by race in each state. Eligible voters are those of voting age, registered voters are those on the rolls in their home state, and actual voters are those who cast their ballots.
In 2022, Arizona boasted the largest number of registered Latino voters among the six swing states. However, Latino voter turnout in Arizona dropped dramatically from 91% in 2020 to just 64% in 2022, mirroring similar trends seen in other battleground states. While this decline is concerning, it likely reflects typical midterm voter disengagement rather than direct effects from voter intimidation. Given that President Biden won Arizona by a razor-thin margin of about 10,000 votes in 2020, the Latino vote could again be decisive in determining the outcome of Arizona’s electoral votes in the upcoming election.
Georgia stands out with almost 1.8 million registered Black voters in both 2020 and 2022, alongside a Latino turnout rate of 79% in 2022—the highest among registered Latino voters in the state. Although Black and Latino voter turnout in Georgia dropped from a high of 93% in 2020 to 79% in 2022, this midterm participation remains strong. For the 2024 election, even coming close to 2020 turnout levels could significantly influence the state’s outcome. The combined impact of these voting blocs is undeniable, especially in a swing state where every vote matters deeply.
In Wisconsin, Latino voter turnout in 2020 was striking, with nearly 96% of registered Latino voters—around 101,000—participating. Although Latinos are far from the majority in the state, this turnout highlighted their growing influence in Wisconsin's tightly contested elections. However, turnout in the 2022 midterms fell to roughly 65%, with fewer than 66,000 showing up to vote, marking a significant 31% drop likely influenced by typical midterm disengagement. With Latino registration nearing 142,000 in 2024, this community is once again positioned to play a critical role in shaping election outcomes in this key battleground state.
In Pennsylvania, the Latino vote holds notable sway, especially in cities with high Latino populations such as Philadelphia, Allentown, Reading, and Bethlehem. Philadelphia leads with a substantial Latino community, representing a robust voting bloc within the electorate. Similarly, the Lehigh Valley region, which includes Allentown and Bethlehem, has seen heightened Latino voter turnout due to focused community mobilization efforts that have gained traction in recent years.
In the 2020 election, these areas demonstrated strong Latino voter participation, with Latinos comprising about 4% of Pennsylvania’s electorate—a figure that held steady into 2022. Even though turnout declined in the midterms, with 81,000 registered Latino voters not casting ballots compared to 35,000 in 2020, the potential impact of Latino voters remains significant. Their turnout in these key areas could be pivotal in determining Pennsylvania’s outcome in the 2024 election, making ongoing engagement essential to maximize Latino participation in this critical swing state.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, mobilizing the Latino vote will be key in determining the outcome in several pivotal swing states. The potential impact of the Latino electorate was evident in 2020, and recent trends underscore the need for continued engagement. While Latinos may not always represent the majority in many key states, their influence is undeniable—as seen in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia, where their votes played a decisive role in past elections.
Eligibility among Latino voters has expanded significantly, with an estimated 36.2 million Latinos becoming eligible to vote in 2024, up from 32.3 million in 2020, accounting for 50% of new eligible voters since then. This growth means Latinos are projected to make up 14.7% of the U.S. electorate. However, only about 53% of Latinos are eligible to vote, compared to 72% of the overall U.S. population, partly due to a younger age profile and the presence of non-citizens. Just 33% of Latino voters are aged 50 or older, in contrast to 48% of the broader electorate.
The engagement of young Latino voters in the upcoming 2024 elections represents a significant opportunity for shaping our democracy. With projections indicating that 22% of Latino voters will be first-time participants, areas such as Philadelphia, Allentown, Reading, and Bethlehem have already shown strong turnout in past elections, setting the stage for continued mobilization.
These trends underscore the power of participation in the electoral process. While numbers alone cannot predict outcomes, they highlight the essential role that active engagement plays in a vibrant democracy. It is through the exercise of their right to vote that Latinos can truly harness their power, demonstrating that participation is the key determinant of electoral success. As we approach 2024, the Latino vote stands ready to make a transformative impact on our nation’s future.